// nillion / encrypted markets / valuationsnapshot 13 oct 2026

What is $NIL worth if markets go encrypted?

Every onchain stop, limit and trigger is public today. Nillion's Covenants seal them until a condition hits. This page measures where that stands today and models what it would be worth if the flow shows up.

Price$0.0741
Market cap$37.6M
FDV$74.9M
NIL staked11.6M
Nodes31
01The thesis in three numbers

Markets hide their hand off-chain. Onchain, they can't.

Off-chain norm50.6%

of US stock volume runs off-exchange

Dark pools alone handled 17.7% in 2025. CME keeps your stop off the book until it triggers. Hiding intent is the default in traditional markets.

Onchain reality$1.04T

of Hyperliquid orders sat on a public book first

About 36% of perp DEX volume rests visibly before it fills, per @thatmarkmac's sample of 1,500 wallets. Perp DEXes did $7.9T in 2025.

The primitivek-of-m

Covenants: sealed until the condition hits

You encrypt an instruction to a node committee and post it onchain. It opens only when a price or time condition is met, and no single node can read it.

02Reality check · onchain, Ethereum mainnet

Live on Ethereum mainnet since 5 October

Read directly from Nillion's contracts on Ethereum. Stake and node count refresh live when the page loads.

Mainnet launch5 Oct 2026Dusk phase, Ethereum L1
Reveal time~78smedian, from condition hit to reveal
Minimum node stake70k NILpermissionless, rewards follow stake
Nodes registered3124 have posted a share at least once
NIL staked11.58M2.3% of circulating supply
Emissions5.01M/yr0.5% of supply, paid to stakers only
Implied staking APR43%emissions ÷ stake, before ETH fees
Protocol fee64 NILflat per Covenant, to the treasury
Why ~$38M market cap is absurd: it is less than the $50M+ the company raised, less than Hyperliquid earns in fees in about 15 days, and below Aztec, Arcium and Oasis. Zama trades at ~5× it, Midnight at ~20× and Zcash at ~540×. This is a live mainnet protocol run by two former Algorand CTOs.

It's early, so today's price is mostly a bet on the roadmap. The rest of this page models what the token could be worth if order flow arrives and fees reach holders, and it marks the inputs that nobody can source yet.

03Team, tech and backers

Two former Algorand CTOs now run it

After a rough 2025, Nillion rebuilt its leadership around protocol engineers who have shipped L1s. The current team built Covenants.

CEO · since Jan 2026

John Woods

CTO of the Algorand Foundation (2022–2025) and earlier a Cardano architect at IOHK. He joined Nillion as CTO in July 2025, took over as CEO, cut burn by ~45% and published the post-mortem himself.

CTO · announced 13 Oct 2026

Bruno Martins

CTO and Chief Architect at the Algorand Foundation, previously at ConsenSys and IOHK. He now leads core technology and Covenants development. Announcement

Science and money

Miguel de Vega, Matthew Pollard

Co-founder and chief scientist de Vega is the inventor on granted US and EU patents for messageless MPC (assigned to Sedicii). CFO Pollard (FCA) joined in Feb 2026 to fix market making.

Raised$50M+more than the current market cap
Lead investorsHack VCDistributed Global, HashKey, Animoca, GSR, Maelstrom
AngelsHayes · Ansemalso Meltem Demirors
CryptographyThreshold IBEBoneh–Franklin on Ethereum precompiles. No keeper and no single key holder.
04The model

Sealed flow × fee × share to $NIL × multiple

Choose how much of each market gets sealed, what it pays, how much of that reaches the token and what multiple the market gives it. Every setting is saved in the link, so you can share a scenario.

1 · Share of each market sealed
$1.04T/yr (@thatmarkmac). Reachable once Skyglow ships cross-chain settlement (Feb–May 2027).
~$1.80T/yr: 36% of $7.9T in 2025, less Hyperliquid. An estimate.
$3.47T over the last 12 months (DefiLlama). Limit, TWAP and stop orders are the candidates.
~$540B/yr from Kalshi plus Polymarket at $45.3B a month (Aug 2026).
~$277B/yr of transfers, $23.1B a month (rwa.xyz, Aug 2026).
~$14T/yr at ~$39B a day (Finery, 2024). A rough estimate. Sealed settle-when-both-legs-land deals.
Nobody has measured these. Enter sealed dollars per year directly.
2 · What it pays
The 10 bps figure has circulated as Nillion's proposed fee, but I found no public Nillion source for it. The only live fee is a flat 64 NIL per Covenant. Treat this as an assumption.
There's no tokenomics document yet and the roadmap has no burn. Value could come from staking, fee routing, stake-for-capacity (Moonshine) or lower emissions.
3 · How the market prices it
Market cap ÷ fees over the last 12 months (DefiLlama, CoinGecko, 13 Oct 2026). ETH is ~1,670× and ZEC ~29,000×, both off this scale.
Implied price $0.00
Sealed notional per year
Fees per year
Fees reaching $NIL
Implied valuation
Today's market cap ÷ those fees
Fee yield on today's market cap
Covenants a day, at a $25k average order

05Sensitivity

Hyperliquid alone: price by share sealed and multiple

Each cell counts only Hyperliquid's resting orders, using your fee, share-to-$NIL and supply settings. Shaded cells beat today's price. The outlined cell is the one closest to your inputs.

06Supply

About 19.5M NIL unlocks every month until early 2028

The 30-month buckets (ecosystem, community, protocol development) finish around March 2028. Investors and team keep unlocking about 8.5M a month until about March 2029. Emissions add about 5M a year on top, with no supply cap. The chart is estimated from published vesting terms.

Next unlock: 24 Oct 2026, about 19.5M NIL (ecosystem 6.9M, early backers 4.4M, core 4.2M, protocol 2.5M, community 1.5M). Some trackers show 16.2M a month instead.

Can usage absorb it at today's flat fee?
NIL paid in fees per year
At today's price
Share of yearly unlocks (~234M)

07What the market pays for fees

Market cap ÷ fees over the last 12 months, log scale

The blue bar is $NIL's market cap divided by the fees your scenario would send to the token. A shorter bar means cheaper.

DefiLlama fees over the last 12 months and CoinGecko market caps, 13 Oct 2026. ETH, SOL and BNB revenue is burn. ZEC, XMR and BTC have almost no tracked fees.

08Peers

$NIL at a peer's valuation

What one NIL would be worth if Nillion traded at each project's size. Market cap divides by circulating supply, fully diluted by 1,011M NIL.

CoinGecko and DefiLlama, 13 Oct 2026. Renegade, Fhenix, Inco and Silhouette have no live token. Railgun is the only privacy protocol here with meaningful tracked fees ($4.2M over 12 months).

09Market context

The flow that could be sealed

$7.9Tperp DEX volume in 2025Cointelegraph / DefiLlama
12.3%perp DEX share of all perp volume, Sep 2026Castle Labs / Forklog
$913MHyperliquid fees over 12 months, $695M to holdersDefiLlama
$45.3BKalshi + Polymarket volume, Aug 2026The Block
$23.1Btokenized stock transfers per monthrwa.xyz / Cointelegraph
$57.4BCoW Swap volume over 12 months, now with TWAP orders for any walletDefiLlama
17.7%US equity volume in dark pools, 2025Rosenblatt
~$39B/daycrypto OTC volume, 2024 estimateFinery Markets
$19Bliquidated on 10 Oct 2025, ~$10B on HyperliquidThe Defiant
10Roadmap · what each phase unlocks for value

A primitive on one chain becomes a default on every chain

  1. Dusk

    Covenants on Ethereum L1, staked nodes, SDK. Baseline tokenomics due.

    You are here
  2. Darkfall

    Every EVM chain on one node set. Stake once, earn everywhere.

    More chains
  3. Skyglow

    Observe a condition on one chain, settle on another.

    Hyperliquid reachable
  4. Nightside

    Any attestable feed can be a condition. Fees priced by condition class.

    Beyond trading
  5. Neon

    A Covenants language and VM. Conditions private even from nodes. Slashing.

    Trust gap closes
  6. Aurora

    Post-quantum sealing, FHE coprocessors.

    Durability
  7. Moonshine

    About 10× cheaper. Cent-level fees, stake NIL for capacity, review of the emission taper.

    Holding = usage

From nillion.com/roadmap. Delivery so far: testnet on time, the first app a week late, mainnet about a week late (5 Oct vs 28 Sep).

11Why it might deserve to be cheap

What kills the thesis

No fees reach the token

The 64 NIL fee goes to the treasury. There is no burn, buyback or fee share, and no tokenomics document yet.

The headline venue arrives in 2027

Hyperliquid can't be reached until Skyglow. V1 is Ethereum only, with price or time conditions on BTC, ETH, SOL and USDT.

Committee trust

Any k nodes can read pending instructions, and nobody would know, until Neon in late 2027. The node set is 31 and mostly young.

Latency

The feed goes to nodes, then Ethereum's 12-second blocks. Reveals have taken about 78 seconds or more. On 10 Oct 2025 Hyperliquid force-closed ~$7.6B in 12 minutes, so a late fill is a bad fill.

Supply

About 19.5M NIL a month until early 2028, with circulating up ~58% by the end of 2027. The token is upgradeable and has a mint role, reportedly held by a 3-of-5 Safe with no timelock.

Competition

Zama (~$880M FDV) could ship encrypted conditional orders. Aster, Paradex and Silhouette already hide orders on their own venues. Fees tend to go to whoever runs matching.

The market chose transparency

Hyperliquid won by being fully public, and privacy-first venues lost share. Regulated flow may stay private on CME, Coinbase and Kalshi servers.

History

A market maker dumped ~65M NIL in Nov 2025, and the story has been reframed four times in 18 months. A new CEO cleaned house in 2026, but that trust still has to be earned back.

12Watchlist

What would change the numbers

13Method and sources

How the numbers were built

Implied price = Σ(market flow × share sealed) × fee × share reaching $NIL × multiple ÷ supply. Price, market cap and onchain counts load live when possible. If they can't load, the page falls back to the 13 Oct 2026 snapshot.